Tuesday, January 10, 2006

RedState.com's $.02 On Blackpolicy.org 2006 Predictions ...

Some thoughtful comments from RedState.com Editor & Blackpolicy.org ASCENT Live! panelist Leon H. Wolf on the ASCENT Political Predictions for 2006. We'll have to agree to disagree with Mr. Wolf on this, but appreciate his willingness to engage:

Also, I would say that your predictions for OH-Gov and MD-Senate are exactly backwards. I understand that we're just reading goat entrails this far out, but I don't think that Blackwell is going to get dragged down with Taft, as he's kept his head pretty well above water. Also, his performance in the Post-Dispatch poll, which oversampled Democrats by double digits, indicates that at this point, it's his race to lose. Added to that, the GOP has a much stronger organization on the ground in Ohio.

For the same reason, I also predict that Steele will lose in MD (although I very much hope that he'll win). Strangely, he seems to poll much better against Mfume, but I think that Cardin has enough control over the party apparatus in MD (and enough money) to probably win the primary. One of our writers spoke with the Steele campaign the other day, and they have polling that shows them dead even with Cardin, however - but of course those kinds of polls should be taken with a large grain of salt. Steele's camp is estimating that with 20% of the black vote they can walk away with a victory, which sounds about right to me - I'm just not confident that he would do it.

My analysis at this point is that Steele has about a 30-40% chance of victory, whereas Blackwell is in the 60-70% range.