Predictions on Mayoral Race in New Orleans ...
The ASCENT Blog lunched a little last week for various reasons, Mardi Gras not being one of them. So, our list of excuses is fairly short. Just one of those weeks, we guess. Some catching up to do ...
The New Orleans Times-Picayune put it best when recently describing Mayor Ray Nagin's (D) political position in the hurricane ravaged Crescent City: he "... can no longer claim invincibility." That's become more evident since the candidate filing deadline this past Friday showed 23 Mayoral wanna-be's grabbing at Nagin's seat. This seemed to exceed the initial expectations of political observers who envisioned a crowded, yet manageable field of 12 or 13 candidates. Beyond the Mayor's race, we're witnessing a democratic growth spurt of 116 enthusiastic candidates running for 20 offices. It makes a crowded race look like a packed emcee battle at the local underground spot.
Still, Nagin shows a very slim lead in a recent CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll of N.O. voters, edging at 19% compared to 18% for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (brother of the Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) famously punked by CNN's Anderson Cooper during a live post-Katrina interview). Yet, CNN calls that edge "cloudy" ...
We still think Nagin will squeeze through this, despite a split-vote-tastes-White-less-Black-gentrified-faster-than-Shani-Davis Big Easy. He could end up being New Orlean's last Black mayor for a long time (much like after Dinkins in New York & Goode in Philly), but, let's not forget, Nagin is a disaster mayor: most voters might have little stomach for dramatic regime change in the midst of a recovery. Deon Roberts (who spoke to us live from downtown New Orleans on ASCENT LIVE! this past Wednesday) of the New Orleans City Business Journal reminds us:
Throughout the city’s 288-year history, most incumbents have won re-election in spite of presiding over catastrophic events.
Officials say history shows it is not the event that spoils an incumbent’s re-election; it’s public perception of how the leader prepared and responded to the event. Another factor, analysts say, can be the event’s timing in relation to the re-election race.
Then again, some in the NEW New Orleans may see this April 22nd primary as a first step towards really cleaning up the notoriously corrupt and politically sinful Crescent City, jumping at a chance to end business as usual. That can become an increasingly attractive proposition.
The New Orleans Times-Picayune put it best when recently describing Mayor Ray Nagin's (D) political position in the hurricane ravaged Crescent City: he "... can no longer claim invincibility." That's become more evident since the candidate filing deadline this past Friday showed 23 Mayoral wanna-be's grabbing at Nagin's seat. This seemed to exceed the initial expectations of political observers who envisioned a crowded, yet manageable field of 12 or 13 candidates. Beyond the Mayor's race, we're witnessing a democratic growth spurt of 116 enthusiastic candidates running for 20 offices. It makes a crowded race look like a packed emcee battle at the local underground spot.
Still, Nagin shows a very slim lead in a recent CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll of N.O. voters, edging at 19% compared to 18% for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (brother of the Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) famously punked by CNN's Anderson Cooper during a live post-Katrina interview). Yet, CNN calls that edge "cloudy" ...
We still think Nagin will squeeze through this, despite a split-vote-tastes-White-less-Black-gentrified-faster-than-Shani-Davis Big Easy. He could end up being New Orlean's last Black mayor for a long time (much like after Dinkins in New York & Goode in Philly), but, let's not forget, Nagin is a disaster mayor: most voters might have little stomach for dramatic regime change in the midst of a recovery. Deon Roberts (who spoke to us live from downtown New Orleans on ASCENT LIVE! this past Wednesday) of the New Orleans City Business Journal reminds us:
Throughout the city’s 288-year history, most incumbents have won re-election in spite of presiding over catastrophic events.
Officials say history shows it is not the event that spoils an incumbent’s re-election; it’s public perception of how the leader prepared and responded to the event. Another factor, analysts say, can be the event’s timing in relation to the re-election race.
Then again, some in the NEW New Orleans may see this April 22nd primary as a first step towards really cleaning up the notoriously corrupt and politically sinful Crescent City, jumping at a chance to end business as usual. That can become an increasingly attractive proposition.
posted by BPblogger at 7:15 PM
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